When a Good Platform Becomes a Good Trade, Take Advantage

Author

Noah Zelvis
November 05, 2025

In partnership with

The setup we like is when a platform adds more users than Wall Street expected, then spooks everyone with a cautious holiday guide.

That mismatch often creates buyable pullbacks, if the core is still compounding.

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The Quick Take

Pinterest Inc (NYSE: PINS) just served up that exact mix of earnings that did well, but a guide that was not.

Shares slumped after hours on a soft Q4 revenue outlook, even as the business hit an all-time high in monthly users and posted double-digit revenue growth last quarter.

If you’ve been waiting for an entry, this is the kind of emotional air-pocket we circle.

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What Actually Happened

  • Q3 results: Revenue grew 17% to ~$1.05B, adjusted EPS was $0.38, a bit light vs. consensus. Global monthly active users (MAUs) hit ~600M, a record and ahead of estimates.

  • Q4 guide: Management guided $1.31–$1.34B for holiday quarter revenue, with the midpoint just under Street expectations, which cued a >20% after-hours drop.

  • Color on headwinds: The team flagged ad budget moderation from large North American retailers (tariff-related margin pressure) and lower spend from Asia-based e-commerce exporters following changes to de minimis rules, both dampening near-term demand. Competition from Meta/TikTok’s ad tools is real.

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Why We Like The Pullback

1) Users before dollars = future optionality.
When a consumer platform prints record MAUs while revenue just matches consensus, we don’t throw the towel, we look closer.

International users monetize more slowly than in North America, so MAU mix can depress short-term ARPU while expanding the long-term monetization runway. 

Pinterest has seen this movie before. Grow the audience, then layer ad formats and shoppable features to lift ARPU over time.

The key is that the top of funnel is clearly working (600M), which is the hard part.

2) The guide is okay, not uh-oh.
A midpoint just below the Street for the most competitive quarter (holiday) is disappointing, but it’s not a thesis breaker.

Ad markets are notoriously twitchy into year-end, with macro and retail margin commentary (tariffs) pushing buyers to be late and cautious.

That can flip quickly if conversion data holds, and it doesn’t change the multi-quarter product roadmap.

3) Competitive pressure is acknowledged and priced.
Yes, Meta/Instagram and TikTok are monsters.

But Pinterest’s edge is high-intent discovery; people open it to plan purchases, rooms, trips, weddings, and wardrobes.

That’s a different shopper mindset than scrolling a social feed. 

The market knows the competitive narrative, but tonight’s guide puts an extra discount on it.

We think that intent gap supports healthier ROAS for the right categories when budgets re-accelerate.

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What Could Go Right From Here

  • Ad tools & shopping density: Continued roll-out of merchant tools, more product pins, and better feed relevance typically improve conversion and ad pricing with a lag.

  • International ARPU catch-up: As features localize and sales coverage improves, ex-U.S. monetization can drive the next leg.

  • Macro relief: Any easing in tariff drag or retail margin fears can unfreeze late-season budgets, providing a snap-back tailwind to Q1 pacing.

What Could Go Wrong

  • Holiday under-delivery: If the ad market tightens further or measurement changes bite, Q4 could land at the low end of the range, inviting another round of estimate cuts. 

  • Share loss to Meta/TikTok: If newer formats underperform or signal loss worsens, share shift could persist longer than bulls expect.

  • ARPU mix drag: Faster growth in lower-monetizing regions may keep headline growth decoupled from user growth for a few quarters.

How I’d Trade It

  • Framing: This looks like a buyable pullback in Pinterest (PINS) driven by guidance optics, not broken demand.

  • Staggered entry: Consider building in two to three tranches over the next 2–3 weeks to let volatility do the work.

  • Risk guardrails: Structure risk around recent after-hours lows (post-print gap) and your personal pain threshold. If you use stops, place them below the gap base to avoid whipsaw.

  • Time horizon: Expect a multi-quarter thesis: MAU strength today → ARPU improvements and product density later.

Catalyst checks (next 1–2 quarters):

  • MAU momentum holding >590–600M (directionally). 

  • Signs of retail budgets thawing post-holidays. 

  • Commentary on shopping/merchant features adoption and conversion quality.

The Bottom Line

Pinterest just told us two things at once, the audience is surging and advertisers are cautious into year-end.

The market hates that combo on day one, but it often sets up day-two opportunities for patient buyers.

If you believe in high-intent discovery as a durable niche, and you’re willing to wait for ARPU to catch up, this pullback looks buyable, not broken.

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider