This Summer IPO Sits 44% Off Its Highs Despite a $1.35B Deal

A beaten-down summer IPO just agreed to a $1.355B deal, and the stock barely moved.

October 07, 2026

A European software roll-up IPO'd this summer and promptly got left for dead. Shares are 44% off the highs. A $1.355 billion acquisition is now pending, and the market has basically shrugged.

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A European software roll-up IPO'd this summer and promptly got left for dead. Shares are 44% off the highs. A $1.355 billion acquisition is now pending, and the market has basically shrugged.

Most IPOs from the class of 2026 either rocketed on day one or slowly bled out. This one managed both. Priced in July, it briefly ran well above the offering, then slid all the way back toward the lows. Now it's rebuilding, and you'll want to watch it.

Bending Spoons (NASDAQ: BSP) is an Italian software conglomerate that buys digital products with proven demand and runs them for decades. Think Constellation Software, but for consumer apps you've actually heard of. Market cap sits around $21 billion.

Action: Build a starter position around current levels ahead of the Miro acquisition closing, with room to add on any pullback.

What Just Happened

Shares closed at $33 on Tuesday, up about 3%. More importantly, the stock is finally stabilizing after a brutal post-IPO drawdown. BSP has given back about 44% from its 52-week high as post-IPO enthusiasm faded and the market struggled to price a business model you hadn't really seen on US exchanges.

Here's the setup. On September 10, Bending Spoons agreed to buy Miro, the visual collaboration platform, for $1.355 billion in cash. That's roughly 90% below the $17.5 billion Miro was valued at in late 2021.

Some Miro shareholders agreed to put $295 million of their proceeds back into new BSP stock, and on September 25 the company priced an upsized $1.25 billion term loan add-on plus a €395 million add-on. Coming right after the Airtable deal closed on September 4, Miro deepens the push into enterprise software. The deal still needs regulatory approvals.

What the Business Actually Does

Bending Spoons is a roll-up, but a disciplined one. The playbook is simple. Find digital products with real users and sticky engagement, buy them, strip out costs, modernize the tech stack, and hold forever.

They own Evernote, Remini, Meetup, StreamYard, and a handful of other names you'd recognize.

The business doesn't launch flashy new products - it runs existing ones better than anyone else. Think Berkshire Hathaway applied to consumer software: boring, cash-generative, compounding in the background.

The founder-led team has done this profitably for over a decade in private hands. Public markets just haven't figured out how to value it yet.

Action: Start a small position now and track the Miro close as the real catalyst. Don't go full size until the deal prints.

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Why The Market Cares

Miro changes the mix for you. Together with Airtable, the deal gives Bending Spoons a real enterprise SaaS business. Enterprise multiples trade at a premium to consumer app multiples. Once Miro's revenue consolidates, watch the comp set shift from consumer apps to enterprise SaaS peers.

Fresh float, early narrative. This stock has been public for barely three months, and the Street is split. BofA rates it Underperform with a $36 target, while Wells Fargo ($48) and Benchmark ($50) are bulls. Institutional ownership is still being built.

Fresh listings with real businesses tend to earn a higher multiple once the story is proven.

Compounder DNA on sale. At about 18 times annualized Q2 adjusted earnings, you're paying a reasonable multiple for a business whose Q2 operating income jumped 139% to $240 million.

The playbook is proven. Whether management can keep executing at scale is the real question, and Miro is the first big public test.

Action: Watch for the Miro close and the first conference call that includes combined numbers. That's when the bull case gets a real test.

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What the Financials Are Signaling

Revenue trajectory. Q2 revenue jumped 126% to $704 million, and management guides Q3 to $733 million to $745 million. The full-year guide of $2.78 billion to $2.82 billion came in below the $2.895 billion consensus, which helps explain the slide. Miro adds a step function on top.

Cash generation. Bending Spoons posted $240 million of Q2 operating income and $381 million of adjusted operating income, up 150%. That discipline doesn't disappear just because you ring the IPO bell.

Balance sheet flexibility. Between the IPO proceeds, the upsized term loan add-ons and the $295 million equity investment from Miro holders, the deal is funded. The flip side is more debt in a high-rate world. Watch for the next deal announcement, which could come any quarter.

Bear Case

The multiple isn't cheap. Even after the drawdown, you're not getting a bargain at roughly 18 times annualized adjusted earnings, and GAAP earnings run well below that. The compounder thesis has to work for the math to work.

Integration risk is real. Miro is a big bite. The deal is sized at $1.355 billion in all-cash enterprise value, which is material relative to Bending Spoons' pre-deal revenue base. If integration stumbles, margins compress fast, and your premium multiple compresses with them.

Thin float, thin liquidity. A newly public foreign issuer with limited US float can move hard on small volume. Cuts both ways. You can grab a great entry on an air pocket, or watch the stock drop 10% on no news. Size accordingly.

Rising rates on roll-up models. Roll-ups depend on cheap capital to keep acquiring. With the 10-year back near multi-year highs, your cost of doing deals goes up, and the math gets tighter. A sector-wide headwind that won't go away soon.

Foreign issuer discount. US investors sometimes punish foreign issuers with persistent discounts even when fundamentals are strong. That overhang could linger regardless of execution.

Action: Hedge with a diversified software basket like the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (BATS: IGV) if you want BSP exposure without single-name blow-up risk.

What Needs to Happen Next

Miro close. Put this at the top of your watch list. A clean close with no regulatory surprises or deal re-cuts validates the enterprise strategy. Expect the stock to move meaningfully on the close plus the first conference call that includes Miro numbers.

First full quarter as a combined entity. Watch for the first reporting period that includes Miro contribution. If management shows cost synergies landing on schedule, the compounder narrative becomes very hard to argue with.

Next acquisition announcement. Part of your thesis is that this team keeps doing deals. Any new acquisition signals the playbook is intact, and the pipeline is healthy. Too much silence is a red flag.

How I'd Frame a Position

Starter at current levels. If you want in, buy a half-size position in the current range. The stock has already round-tripped once and trades about 10% above its post-IPO low of $30.

Add on the Miro close. Hold back dry powder for the deal close and the first combined-entity quarter. If management delivers, you add on strength. If there's a hiccup, you reassess rather than averaging into a broken thesis.

If you already own it. Don't chase above the pre-drawdown highs before the Miro quarter prints. The catalyst is identifiable. Patience is cheap when the setup is this clean.

Why BSP Could Be a Classic Mispricing

Bending Spoons is a disciplined software compounder that went public at bad timing and now trades 44% off its highs. The pending Miro acquisition brings a serious enterprise SaaS leg into the mix.

The Street is split, the float is small, and the story is still being told. You're not getting it dirt cheap, but you're getting it before the Miro numbers show up. Build in the current range, add on the deal close.

Setup Scorecard

Entry Zone: $31 to $34

Target: $45 over 6 to 12 months

Stop Loss: $29, just under the $30 post-IPO low 

Catalyst Timeline: Miro close pending regulatory approvals, Q3 earnings later this fall, first combined-entity earnings in 2027

Confidence Level: Medium. The thesis is identifiable, but execution risk on a large enterprise acquisition is real.

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider