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This Crypto Exchange Wants to Become the App You Open For Everything
Noah Zelvis
December 28, 2025
This stock is basically a lever on two things: crypto prices and customer engagement.
If the company can turn open the app when Bitcoin is pumping into open the app every day, the business gets a lot less fragile.
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What Just Happened
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) said it will buy prediction markets startup The Clearing Company, part of a broader push to expand beyond core crypto trading. The deal is expected to close in January, and terms were not disclosed.
This is not a random side quest. Coinbase has been stacking product lines that look more like a modern brokerage than a pure crypto exchange. It recently launched a prediction markets platform, and it has also signaled plans to bring stock trading into the same app, aiming squarely at competitors like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers.
The near-term stock reaction matters less than the strategic message. Coinbase is saying, out loud, that it does not want its revenue cycle chained to Bitcoin up, volumes up forever.
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The Business
Coinbase is still, first and foremost, the largest U.S.-based crypto exchange. It earns transaction revenue when people trade, plus subscription and services revenue from things like custody, staking, and other platform services. When crypto markets are active, the model prints. When crypto markets get boring or ugly, revenue can drop fast.
That is why the diversification push is logical. A multi-asset app with more reasons to check in creates smoother engagement, steadier monetization, and a story Wall Street can underwrite without needing a crypto bull market every year.
The key word is reasons. Crypto trading is episodic. Prediction markets, stock trading, and derivatives-style products can be higher frequency and more habit-forming, which is exactly what broker apps are built on.
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Why Prediction Markets Are A Big Deal
Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, from elections and economic data to sports and policy decisions. Supporters argue market pricing can be surprisingly informative. Critics argue it blurs the line between financial products and betting, which invites regulatory scrutiny.
For Coinbase, prediction markets solve a very practical business problem: engagement.
Crypto users often show up in waves. A product tied to constant real-world events gives users something to do even when crypto is sideways. It also expands the identity of the app. You are not opening it only to trade Bitcoin. You are opening it because there is always something happening.
That aligns with what analysts highlighted in the coverage: prediction markets can be a high-engagement, high-frequency product that broadens the reasons to open the app.
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The Bigger Strategy
Coinbase is trying to become an everything exchange, even if it does not use that phrase in every headline. The playbook looks like this:
Keep the crypto core because it is still a massive profit pool when markets heat up.
Add adjacent markets like prediction contracts and stocks so engagement becomes steadier.
Build a broader financial identity so users keep balances in the app and use multiple products.
The endgame is pretty clear. If Coinbase can turn itself into a daily-use financial app, it can earn a higher valuation multiple than a business that lives and dies by crypto volume cycles.
The Setup In The Stock
At roughly $240, the stock is down modestly year to date, but it is also well below its 52-week high. That tracks the broader mood shift in crypto this year.
Bitcoin, for reference, is around $87,690, well off its October 2025 all-time high near $126,198. In other words, the macro tailwind is not as clean as it was at the peak, even though prices are still high in absolute terms.
That matters because Coinbase’s stock tends to behave like a turbocharged version of Bitcoin sentiment. When traders get excited, COIN can move fast. When traders get cautious, COIN tends to feel it early.
So the platform expansion is not just growth theater. It is an attempt to reduce how violently the business swings with the crypto tape.
Why Bulls Still Care
The company is building more levers than “spot trading volume.”
If prediction markets and stock trading gain traction, Coinbase has more ways to monetize users even when crypto is quiet.
The engagement argument is real.
Brokerage apps win by being sticky. Products tied to everyday events and frequent decision points tend to increase app opens and user activity.
Regulatory tone has improved versus the “lawsuit era.”
Even if regulation remains messy, the industry has been moving toward clearer frameworks. That tends to help the strongest incumbents.
Bitcoin does not need to moon for this to work.
Crypto prices staying “good enough” plus higher engagement products could support a steadier earnings profile than Coinbase has historically shown.
Why Bears Still Worry
Prediction markets invite regulators.
This category is growing fast and also attracting scrutiny. If regulators treat it more like gambling than trading, distribution and growth can get complicated.
Execution risk is real.
Adding new products is easy. Making them feel seamless, trusted, and safe at scale is harder. A few bad headlines can chill adoption.
Competition is not sleeping.
Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and other platforms already know how to drive high-frequency engagement. Coinbase is entering their territory.
Crypto cyclicality still dominates.
Even if Coinbase diversifies, crypto will remain the core narrative for a long time. If a true crypto winter hits, everything gets harder.
What To Watch Next
1) Product rollout quality
Do prediction markets feel like a core feature users return to, or a novelty tab?
2) Regulatory posture
Look for how the company frames compliance and guardrails. The faster this category grows, the more the rulebook will matter.
3) Cross-sell indicators
The win is not “more products exist.” The win is “more users adopt more than one product.”
4) Bitcoin trend and volatility
Even with diversification, crypto price action influences sentiment, trading activity, and the stock’s multiple.
5) M&A integration pace
This is the tenth acquisition this year. That is a lot. Investors will want to see clean integration and clear product outcomes.
How I’d Think About Position Size
This is not a sleepy compounder. It is a volatile story stock with real macro sensitivity.
Starter if you want exposure to a platform that could evolve into a broader financial hub, and you can handle volatility.
Add only on evidence that new products drive steady engagement and revenue, not just headlines.
Brake lights if crypto sentiment turns sharply risk-off and the new initiatives look like they are not moving the needle.
The Bottom Line
This is Coinbase trying to graduate from crypto exchange to multi-asset financial app. The Clearing Company deal is a step in that direction, and prediction markets are a logical engagement tool that can keep users active between crypto cycles.
The opportunity is a less cyclical business with more reasons to open the app. The risk is that the new categories bring tougher regulation and tougher competition, while the stock still behaves like a Bitcoin mood ring.
Action Recap
✅ Starter: Small position if you want exposure to a broader “everything exchange” buildout
✅ Add On Proof: Rising engagement plus clear monetization beyond crypto trading
⚠️ Trim On Trouble: Regulatory friction spikes or crypto winter fears return hard
👀 Watch Next: Prediction market traction, stock trading rollout progress, and BTC trend
That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider