This Cloud Veteran Has a Silver Lining As An AI Comeback Story

You do not need to know every product name to follow this one.

Think about three things: are customers actually paying real money for the new AI agents, is cash still piling up even while management goes shopping, and is the weak share price about fundamentals or just investors chasing flashier AI tickers.

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What Just Happened

Salesforce (CRM) just dropped a quarter that was quietly solid rather than explosive.

  • Adjusted EPS was about 3.25 versus roughly 2.86 expected

  • Revenue landed near 10.26 billion, up around 9% year over year and essentially in line

  • Net income climbed to just over 2.0 billion, helped by gains on strategic investments

  • Free cash flow came in around 2.18 billion, up 22% year over year but a little below what some were hoping for

For the current quarter, management guided to:

  • Adjusted EPS of about 3.02 to 3.04

  • Revenue of roughly 11.13 to 11.23 billion, ahead of the 10.9 billion Street view

They also nudged up the full-year fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to about 41.45 to 41.55 billion.

The AI angle is finally showing up in real numbers. Agentforce is now doing more than 500 million in annualized revenue, and AI plus data products together are around 1.4 billion of recurring revenue.

The catch? The stock is still down close to 28% this year, while broader tech is comfortably green.

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The Strategy

The mission is simple to say, messy to do.

  • Keep being the system of record where sales, service, and marketing teams live all day

  • Pour customer data into Data Cloud so it is actually usable

  • Let Agentforce sit on top of that and handle more of the grunt work: drafting emails, answering tickets, chasing renewals, nudging deals

Informatica is there to clean and connect data from all the random systems companies already use.

Smaller AI acquisitions like Regrello and Waii help with automation and querying.

Put it together and the pitch is: you already run your go-to-market on this platform, now let AI agents do more of the work so your humans can deal with the weird edge cases.

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Why The Stock Looks Banged Up

So why is the share price acting like this is a tired old SaaS name?

  • Growth is fine, not thrilling. High single-digit to low double-digit revenue growth is solid, but it does not scream AI rocket ship.

  • AI is still a slice, not the main course. A few hundred million of AI revenue inside a 40 billion-plus business is progress, not transformation.

  • Competition is everywhere. Microsoft, ServiceNow, Oracle and others are all pushing their own AI assistants into the same budgets.

  • Earlier guidance missteps hurt trust. A couple of cautious outlooks earlier in the year made investors wonder if this is now more bond proxy than growth stock.

  • The starting valuation was rich. Coming into 2025, expectations were high, so even normal execution felt disappointing.

Right now, the chart is telling the story of a de-rated blue chip more than a life-changing AI winner.

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The Good Stuff You Can Bank On

  • Huge, sticky customer base
    Salesforce still runs the daily workflow for a lot of sales and support teams. That distribution channel for new AI and data products is a real asset.

  • AI adoption with actual contracts
    Agentforce crossing 500 million in annualized revenue and AI plus data ARR at roughly 1.4 billion means customers are signing and paying, not just kicking the tires.

  • Cash engine is working
    Free cash flow of more than 2 billion in a quarter, up faster than revenue, gives fuel for buybacks, dividends, acquisitions, and R&D without starving anything.

  • Guidance is moving up, not down
    Raising the full-year outlook in a choppy macro is a quiet but important vote of confidence from management.

  • Data as a moat
    If Salesforce can be the place where messy enterprise data gets cleaned up and wired into AI agents, that becomes a long-lasting edge rather than a one-quarter story.

The Risks You Should Respect

  • Ceiling risk on growth
    If revenue settles in the 8–12% range for too long, some investors will keep rotating into faster names, AI buzz or not.

  • Integration and complexity
    Blending Informatica, Agentforce, Data Cloud and the older clouds into something simple to buy and use is hard. Complexity is the enemy of fast adoption.

  • AI payoff may stay modest for a while
    Many AI deals today are add-ons, not full rewrites of how a customer works. That can support growth without really bending the overall curve.

  • Strong rivals in the same budget line
    When a CIO can buy one assistant bundled with their cloud platform and office suite, Salesforce has to prove why its version is worth extra.

  • Cost and job optics
    Using AI to automate support and raising prices on core editions helps margins, but can sting relationships with both customers and staff if mishandled.

What This Means For The Next 3–4 Quarters

The setup here is less about a sudden blast off and more about steady proof.

You want to see:

  • AI and data ARR growing meaningfully faster than total revenue

  • A rising share of new and expansion deals that include Agentforce or Data Cloud by default

  • Free cash flow margins trending higher, not wobbling, as AI and acquisitions scale

  • Solid growth in core Sales and Service Clouds so the foundation stays strong

  • Honest commentary on competitive win rates in larger enterprise deals

If those boxes get checked a few quarters in a row, the story shifts from is this washed up to this may be a durable compounder with AI upside that got too cheap.

How I Would Frame A Position

  • Starter on down days
    A small starter position can make sense when the stock sells off on mood rather than numbers, especially with guidance inching up.

  • Let proof earn your adds
    Add only if you see multiple quarters where AI and data keep gaining share of revenue and free cash flow margins improve while core growth holds.

  • Size it like a core, not a lottery ticket
    This is more steady compounder with optionality than pure high beta. Position size should match that.

  • Trim if the thesis drifts
    If AI adoption stalls, core clouds slow, or guidance steps down again, assume the market will keep the multiple on a short leash.

Action Recap 

Starter: Consider a small position if you want exposure to enterprise AI agents built on a very sticky customer base.
✅ Add On Proof: After a few clean quarters of faster AI and data growth, solid core clouds, and improving free cash flow margins.
⚠️ Trim On Trouble: If AI fails to move the needle, key deals start going to rivals, or guidance rolls over again.

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider