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Plan, Pipes, and Paycheck: Your Three-Point Guide to a Turnaround in Communications
Noah Zelvis
November 15, 2025
You don’t need a crystal ball to play a steady rebound.
Watch three levers that actually move the story with the plan (can leadership fix churn and simplify offers), the pipes (does the network win contracts beyond phone plans), and the paycheck (does free cash flow comfortably cover a fat dividend).
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What Just Happened
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) hit the big red reset button.
The board installed Dan Schulman in October to replace Hans Vestberg, with chair Mark Bertolini openly saying the company “needed to act” after years of share losses.
That means fewer pricing gymnastics, more customer-first basics, and a leaner cost structure.
The operating engine isn’t broken, as wireless service revenue still grew and full-year guidance held, but the customer metrics need rehab, especially postpaid phone additions.
At the same time, the company has been flashing we still build serious networks with a new AI-focused fiber build for AWS and a 100G optical ring for Monumental Sports’ broadcast backbone.
Sprinkle in a near-7% dividend and single-digit P/E, and you’ve got a very un-meme stock with old-school cash appeal.
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The Business
Consumer wireless pays most of the bills, but enterprise and wholesale pipes (long-haul fiber, venue backbones, private networks) are the quiet glue that keeps margins sane.
The near-term headache is competition in postpaid phones; AT&T and T-Mobile have been adding while Verizon’s phone net adds slipped again.
The offset is broadband (fixed wireless plus Fios) quietly stacking subscribers and stabilizing ARPA.
The crown jewel remains the network, and if leadership can convert network bragging rights into lower churn and simpler bundles, the flywheel looks healthier than the last few years suggest.
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The Three-Step Test
1) The Plan (subs, churn, offers)
Schulman’s playbook skews practical: simplify plans, stop paying for churn, and use AI/automation to lower service costs.
Your tell is phone churn trending down while ARPA holds or rises.
If the mix shifts toward stickier converged offerings (mobile + home internet) and fewer free lines, fine print promos, lifetime value improves without spraying dollars at retention.
Two quarters of better churn with stable ARPA is your green light that the plan is more than a press release.
2) The Pipes (enterprise wins, proof points)
It’s easy to say best network, it’s harder to sell it. The AWS AI Connect build and the Monumental Sports 100G ring are receipts that big workloads still choose Verizon.
More venue backbones, media contribution networks, private wireless, and hyperscaler routes would diversify revenue away from pure consumer knife fights.
If that pipeline grows, you’re getting steadier, contract-heavy cash that doesn’t care what a competitor’s promo is this weekend.
3) The Paycheck (free cash flow, dividend cover)
The dividend is why many show up. With a high single-digit multiple and a yield around the mid-6s, the math is simple: does free cash flow cover the payout with room for debt paydown and modest growth capex?
If management sticks to full-year FCF guidance and avoids surprise capex blowouts, you’re getting paid to wait for the turnaround,without sweating every quarterly sub print.
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Why Bulls Still Cheer
Leadership urgency. The board was candid about slipping share and moved quickly. That alignment matters.
Network proves itself outside retail. Hyperscaler fiber routes and sports-media backbones are margin-friendly proof points.
Broadband tailwind. Fixed wireless keeps adding; Fios net adds re-accelerated. Cross-sell improves stickiness.
Cash cushion. Solid operating cash flow and disciplined guidance create room to fund the dividend and tidy up leverage.
Why Bears Keep Their Helmets On
Promo ping-pong. If rivals press harder on price, Verizon either loses share or trims ARPU to keep pace—both hurt optics.
Execution risk. Culture and cost resets, plus any headcount actions, can nick customer experience if staged poorly.
Capex creep. If densification or new routes require more spend than planned, the payout debate gets louder.
What to Watch
Churn and ARPA together. Down churn with steady/up ARPA is the cleanest “plan is working” signal.
Phone net adds vs. broadband adds. Phone stabilizing while broadband keeps compounding is the mix you want.
Enterprise pipeline. Any expansion of hyperscaler routes, venue backbones, or private wireless footprints.
Guide discipline. Reaffirmed service-revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and FCF ranges keep the paycheck de-risked.
Cost roadmap. If there’s a large workforce reduction, watch the run-rate savings and service metrics in the next 1–2 quarters.
How I’d Think About Position Size
Treat this as a get-paid-to-wait turnaround anchored by cash, not a momentum trade.
Starter: 2–3% of equities on calm/red days. You’re buying the dividend and optionality.
Earn the add: Scale toward 4–5% only if you get two straight quarters with improving churn, stable/up ARPA, and FCF on (or ahead of) pace.
Brake lights: Trim if churn worsens while promos intensify, or if management walks back FCF/EPS without a clear investment payoff.
What Could Go Right
Offer simplification lands. Cleaner plans plus better service tooling reduce churn faster than the Street models.
Enterprise keeps stacking. More AI/fiber routes and media/venue backbones add durable, contract-heavy revenue.
Free cash flow compounding. Meeting guide with modest capex and cost wins reframes the dividend as a strength, not a question.
What Could Go Wrong
Surprise price war. A promotional relapse would undercut ARPA and push out margin recovery.
Operational wobble. If restructuring is rushed, customer care and install/repair times slip, feeding churn.
Capex overruns. If densification or new builds pull forward spend, payout flexibility narrows.
Valuation, Without the Headache
You’re not paying a tech-hero multiple here. Think value tag with a real coupon.
The bull math isn’t heroic, as you need to keep service revenue growing low-single digits, hold ARPA, bend churn lower, and let broadband/enterprise add a second leg.
Do that, and a little multiple respect can show up on top of a high-single-digit total yield (dividend plus buybacks/debt paydown).
The bear case is a classic value trap, if churn doesn’t budge and promos return, the low multiple is earned.
That’s why your check-ins are churn, ARPA, and FCF, not just headline subs.
The Bottom Line
If you want an income core with a plausible self-help story, this fits.
The plan (leadership reset, simpler offers, cost discipline), the pipes (real enterprise routes and venue networks), and the paycheck (healthy free cash flow funding a sizable dividend) give you three shots on goal.
Start small, let management earn your adds with churn and cash proof, and use dull days to build. It won’t win cocktail-party bragging rights, but it might help pay for the cocktails.
Action Recap
✅ Starter: 2–3% on pullbacks; you’re here for cash plus optionality
✅ Add on proof: Two clean quarters of lower churn, steady/up ARPA, and FCF on pace
⚠️ Trim on trouble: Churn and ARPA slipping together or guide backpedals without a clear payoff
👀 Watch next: CEO plan details, enterprise pipeline adds, guide discipline, and broadband momentum
That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider