High Voltage, Higher Hopes For This Chip Player

Author

Noah Zelvis
October 22, 2025

A power-electronics upstart just went from phone chargers to the front row of the AI datacenter build-out.

The pitch is new materials that waste less electricity and run cooler as the world cranks power to 11.

The catch is that the stock’s already conducting electricity. Here’s how to play it.

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What Just Happened

Navitas Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NVTS) closed around $15 after a face-melting run this month, up ~330% year to date and ~480% over 12 months.

Market value sits near $3.2B, no meaningful P/E yet because it’s still unprofitable. 

Shares ripped after the company unveiled new gallium-nitride (GaN) and silicon-carbide (SiC) power chips purpose-built for Nvidia’s 800-volt AI factory architecture.

What that means is they want to be part of the power plumbing for next-gen AI data centers.

There’s heat on both sides. Bulls point to a rare pure-play on GaN/SiC just as AI power demand goes vertical.

Bears point to valuation, insider selling, and the fact that headlines aren’t the same as big, confirmed orders. 

Short interest is elevated, so the tape can move fast in either direction.

Navitas is slated to report Q3 results in early November, so near-term swings likely track updates on design wins and revenue cadence.

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The Business

Navitas designs power chips that convert electricity more efficiently.

Why care? AI servers, electric cars, solar inverters, and fast chargers all waste power as heat when you step voltage up or down.

Using better materials cuts those losses.

  • GaN and SiC, in plain English: Newer semiconductor materials that handle high voltages and switch faster than old-school silicon. Faster switching = smaller, cooler, more efficient power systems.

  • Where they sell: Today that’s a mix of chargers and consumer gear, with growing pushes into data centers, EV, solar, and industrial. The AI factory hype is about getting designed into the big power bricks inside server racks.

  • Why small can be mighty here: Once a chip is designed in to a power system, it tends to stick for years. One big program can be a step-change for revenue.

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Why Bulls Still Cheer

  • Right tech, right time. AI data centers are gulping electricity, and everyone from Nvidia to hyperscalers is talking about higher-voltage 800V systems. GaN/SiC are natural fits for efficiency.

  • Category expansion. Navitas has been known for chargers, but it’s leaning into data center, EV, and renewables. If even one of those ramps, the business mix and margins can lift meaningfully.

  • Momentum and mindshare. Announcing parts for Nvidia’s 800V blueprint put the brand on the map. That helps with recruiting engineers, courting partners, and taking more at-bats with big customers.

  • Self-serve tailwind: scale economics. As volumes rise, costs per chip fall, and each design win can drop more dollars to the bottom line.

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Why Bears Keep Their Helmets On

  • Show me the money. Press releases aren’t purchase orders. Until there are named programs and production revenue, it’s still potential.

  • Priced for perfection. After the moonshot, the stock implies a fast ramp. Any delay in data-center or EV adoption can smack the multiple.

  • Insider and supply overhang optics. Recent insider sales and a high short base can amplify drawdowns if sentiment flips.

  • Crowded field. Big, well-funded competitors also sell GaN/SiC (and the modules around them). Navitas must win on performance, cost, and support.

  • Lumpy end-markets. Solar and EV cycles can whipsaw. Even AI capex slows when budgets reset. Small companies feel those shocks more.

What To Watch

  • Design wins: Concrete announcements that Navitas parts are chosen for a production system (server power modules, EV inverters, solar gear). This is the on-ramp to recurring revenue.

  • Revenue mix: More sales from data center, EV, and industrial vs. small consumer chargers. Mix shift = higher ceiling.

  • Gross margin: A simple health check. Better margins suggest pricing power and scale. Sliding margins say the opposite.

  • Cash burn and runway: Still unprofitable. Watch operating cash flow and cash balance so growth isn’t funded by painful dilution.

  • Customer concentration: One mega customer is great, until it isn’t. Broadening the base de-risks the story.

  • Short-term tells: Any third-party teardowns showing Navitas chips inside power modules tied to large AI builds, and any updates from Nvidia’s ecosystem days.

How I’d Think About Position Size

Treat NVTS like a speculative growth chip name with real tech and real volatility.

The upside is non-linear if it becomes a standard in AI power, but the path is bumpy.

  • Starter: 0.5–1.5% position on pullbacks toward prior support levels. Accept that it can swing double digits in a day.

  • Earn the add: Consider 2–3% only if you see (a) at least one named, production data-center win or EV/industrial program, and (b) two quarters with revenue growth re-accelerating and gross margin improving.

  • Brake lights: If big claims keep coming without named wins, or margins sag while opex climbs, tighten or trim. Momentum without fundamentals fades fast.

What Could Go Right

  • Real design-in, real dollars. A marquee AI power module win moves from sampling to volume. That’s the step-function investors want.

  • Follow-on snowball. Once one major program locks in, rivals and partners take a closer look, pulling more sockets into the funnel.

  • Wider adoption of 800V architectures. If higher-voltage becomes the norm in data centers (and continues to spread in EVs), the tide lifts every boat in GaN/SiC.

  • Manufacturing scale. Wafer partnerships and yields improve, lowering costs and boosting gross margin faster than expected.

What Could Go Wrong

  • Headline without hardware. If purpose-built for X doesn’t turn into shipping to X, the story stalls and the stock can retrace quickly.

  • Budget wobble. A pause in AI capex or EV softness pushes out orders. Small caps feel those delays hard.

  • Competitor leapfrog. A larger supplier wins the sockets Navitas is chasing or bundles a better total solution.

  • Capital needs. If growth requires more cash than the balance sheet supports, new shares at lower prices hurt existing holders.

Valuation, Without the Headache

Think of the price as a bet on two lines going up at the same time:

  1. Proof of adoption (named design wins that move into production), and

  2. Financial lift (revenue growth + rising gross margin + improving cash burn).

If both happen, you don’t need the multiple to expand for the stock to work over time.

If either drifts, the future greatness premium gets cut, sometimes brutally. That’s normal for young, loved growth stories.

The Bottom Line

Navitas has legit tech in GaN/SiC and a timely pitch: make the AI power chain smaller, cooler, and more efficient.

The stock already priced in a lot of tomorrow, so your edge is discipline today. Start small, buy weakness, and let evidence decide if you size up.

The first real, named data-center win that ships would be a big green light. Until then, enjoy the voltage, respect the risk.

Action Recap

✅ Starter only (0.5–1.5%) on pullbacks; expect turbulence
✅ Add on proof: named production wins + two quarters of improving growth and margins
⚠️ Trim/tighten if headlines outpace orders or margins roll over
👀 Watch: design-win disclosures, mix shift to AI/EV/industrial, gross margin trend, cash runway, and any third-party evidence of sockets in live AI power modules

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider