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Cloudy With A Chance Of Cashflows: Can The OG CRM Find Its Fastball?

Author

Noah Zelvis
October 18, 2025

The stock sits near $246, down roughly 26% this year and about 15% over 12 months. Ouch.

Then Dreamforce rolled around and management tossed a few bones to Wall Street, a $60B by 2030 revenue target, a $7B share buyback over the next six months, and a fresh coat of paint on its AI story.

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What Just Happened

Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) sells the software that helps companies keep track of customers and sell more to them. The classic pitch was buy seats for your sales and service teams.

The new pitch is let an AI helper draft the email, fill the CRM fields, answer routine support questions and nudge the deal.

If that sounds like no one will need to log in, breathe. The idea is to help people do more, not replace every human with a robot that says how can I help in a chipper voice.

The rub is timing. Growth cooled earlier this year.

Big customers pressed pause while they sorted out their own AI budgets. Investors started to worry that smarter software might actually shrink the seat count.

Add a couple of cautious quarters and you get a stock chart that looks like a ski slope. 

Dreamforce tried to change the mood with a long-term goal, a chunky buyback, and more detail on how AI will make the whole platform stickier.

Sprinkle in the pending Informatica deal to shore up the data plumbing and you get a cleaner story. Better data in, better AI out, more reasons to stay in the Salesforce universe.

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The Debate Everyone’s Having

  • Can growth re-accelerate. The 2030 guide implies a faster slope than we’ve seen lately.

    Bulls think AI features and automation will open up new budget. Bears think core clouds are mature and crowded.

  • Seats vs agents. If bots handle grunt work, do you need as many human licenses. Management says agents are additive because they lift throughput and create new workloads.

    Skeptics want paid numbers, not slogans.

  • Integration patience. Informatica should help the data story, but combining big platforms takes quarters.

    Investors love synergies in spreadsheets and get cranky when real life moves slower.

  • Competition. Microsoft bundles half the office into one price. HubSpot is sneaking upmarket. Startups brag about AI-native CRMs.

    Salesforce fights back with breadth, an enormous partner ecosystem, and the annoyance of ripping out something that is already welded into every workflow.

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The Numbers To Watch (No Decoder Ring Needed)

  • New deals and expansions. Listen for big customers adding modules or agents, not just renewing what they had.

  • Backlog health. Salesforce reports a contracts signed but not recognized yet figure. If that grows faster than revenue, the future pipeline is improving.

  • Operating margin. It has ticked up for ten straight quarters. If margins keep improving while growth speeds up, that is the sweet spot.

  • Free cash flow per share. Buybacks only help if the cash engine stays strong. This is the cleanest sanity check.

  • Agentforce adoption. We want real, paid adoption. Even early attach rates or disclosed pricing tiers help.

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Why This Can Work From Here

  • New upsell cycle. Every cloud, from Sales to Service to Marketing, now has an AI-first pitch.

    That is a new conversation with thousands of existing customers sitting on mountains of data.

  • Data moat gets wider. Data Cloud growth helps, and Informatica, if and when it closes, improves ingestion and data quality.

    Better data creates better AI, which makes the platform harder to leave.

  • Shareholder math. A $7B buyback at today’s price matters. Fewer shares, steady margins, and even modest growth can push earnings per share ahead of revenue.

  • Scale. Support, R&D, and the partner ecosystem spread across a very wide product set. That is tough for point tools to copy.

Why You Still Respect The Risk

  • Another reset would sting. After a long drawdown, investors want proof, not pep talks. One more soft outlook and the eye rolls return.

  • Some cannibalization is possible. Agents may replace a slice of entry-level seats in Service or Sales. Net impact can still be positive, but line-item metrics could wobble.

  • Integration risk. If the Informatica timing slips or the synergy clock starts late, the data supercharger promise gets pushed out while you still own the headline risk.

  • Tight IT budgets. If CFOs remain stingy into 2026, deal cycles stay long and land and expand becomes land and wait.

Positioning Playbook

  • Start small on dips. Consider 1% to 2% around $235–$245 with a mental stop roughly 12% to 15% lower. That keeps the risk to portfolio mood in check.

  • Add on proof, not on press releases. Build toward 3% to 4% only if you see two quarters in a row where backlog grows faster than revenue, operating margin expands, and management shares hard numbers on paid AI adoption.

  • Trim the victory laps. If shares sprint toward $280–$300 on headlines without those proof points, shave and wait.

Simple Scenarios

  • Base case. Revenue inches back to high single digits or low doubles by late FY26, margin creeps higher, buyback helps EPS. Stock grinds toward $270–$300 over the next 6 to 12 months.

  • Bull case. Agentforce gets real traction by mid-2026, Data Cloud plus Informatica win larger standard deals, backlog outpaces revenue by a healthy margin. Shares re-rate into the low $300s and can build from there.

  • Bear case. AI attach disappoints, core clouds stay sluggish, guidance gets trimmed again. Shares test the low $220s and churn while everyone waits for proof.

How To Read The Next Few Months

Expect lots of customer stories about agents closing cases or shrinking sales cycles, plus more partner announcements.

Fun to hear, but they are seasoning, not the main dish.

The main dish is bookings, backlog, margins, and cash. If those improve together, the long-term target starts to look real and you do not need a wild valuation to win.

Bottom Line

Salesforce is not broken. It is a mature platform trying to kick off a new growth chapter with AI helpers and better data pipes.

The promises are large, the math still has to show up. The smart approach is measured.

Start small on weakness, add only when bookings and margins rise together, and let free cash flow, not conference sizzle, drive your conviction.

Action Recap

  • ✅ Starter 1%–2% near $235–$245, defined risk.

  • ✅ Add toward 3%–4% after two quarters of stronger backlog, rising margins, and visible paid AI adoption.

  • ⚠️ Trim if price outruns proof.

  • 👀 Watch Agentforce paid metrics, Data Cloud momentum, Informatica timing, and free cash flow per share.

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider