Cache Me If You Can, Time For A Buy In This Stock

Author

Noah Zelvis
October 25, 2025

Every flashy AI app needs somewhere to stash its ones and zeros. That “somewhere” is getting faster, cheaper, and smarter, and the vendors who ship it quietly print money.

This pick is a grown-up way to play the AI build-out without betting the farm on unprofitable science projects.

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What Just Happened

NetApp (NASDAQ: NTAP) trades around $118, roughly flat on the year and well off its $135 high, with a $23.5B market cap and a ~1.8% dividend.

It’s profitable at about 21 times earnings, which is middle-of-the-road for a cash-generating infrastructure name.

The quick sketch here is a legacy storage leader that reinvented itself for hybrid cloud, now catching a tailwind as enterprises refresh gear to handle AI-era data.

Recent scorecard bits from the last few quarters. Revenue is running around $6½B annualized, earnings per share guided in the low sevens for FY25, and consistent small beats. 

All-flash arrays are growing, public-cloud services are growing faster, and the company is leaning into consumption pricing (Storage-as-a-Service) so customers can scale up or down without ripping out hardware.

There’s still macro noise in Europe and some lumpy deals, but the core engine is fine, and the balance between on-prem and cloud is their thing.

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The Business

Think data closets for big companies, plus software that moves and protects files across private data centers and the big clouds.

  • On-prem flash systems: High-end boxes for speed and reliability in your own racks.

  • Cloud data services: The same smarts, but delivered inside AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud so apps can read and write at cloud speed.

  • Hybrid magic: Tools to replicate, back up, tier to cheap storage, and recover if something goes boom.

As AI pilots turn into real workloads, datasets balloon.

That means more flash for hot data, cheaper tiers for cold data, and smarter software to put each file in the right place. That’s NetApp’s wheelhouse.

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Why Bulls Still Cheer

  • Picks-and-shovels for AI. You can’t train models or serve them to users without fast, reliable storage. NetApp already sits in a lot of enterprise basements and cloud accounts, so it’s “first call” when budgets open.

  • Flash mix up, margins up. All-flash and subscription software carry better gross margins than old-school disk. As mix improves, profits outrun sales.

  • Hybrid is the default. Most large companies run a blend of on-prem and cloud. NetApp sells the glue, which is sticky once integrated.

  • Shareholder-friendly. Dividend plus buybacks, steady cash generation, and no science-project burn rate.

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Why Bears Keep Their Helmets On

  • It’s still storage. This isn’t a hypergrowth app. Big deals can slip a quarter, and competitors (Dell, Pure, the clouds themselves) are not shy.

  • Cloud cannibalization risk. As more data moves to cloud-native services, some buyers lean into “just use the cloud vendor,” squeezing third-party margins.

  • Macro and procurement drag. Europe has been slow, and elongated approvals can turn a “beat” into a “meet” in any given quarter.

  • Valuation discipline. At ~21x earnings, the market expects execution. Miss a few all-flash wins or cloud renewals and the multiple can compress.

What To Watch (jargon translated)

  • All-flash growth: Are customers buying the faster stuff? Rising flash revenue usually equals better margins.

  • Cloud data services: Subscriptions inside AWS/Azure/Google. Faster growth here means more recurring cash and less quarter-to-quarter whiplash.

  • AI pipeline anecdotes: Named customer wins for AI infrastructure, or references with GPU clusters that need fat, fast storage.

  • Gross margin trend: Simple tell on pricing power and product mix. Steady to up is good.

  • Free cash flow and buybacks: Are they converting profits to cash and handing some back? That supports the floor on bad days.

Valuation

Frame it like this: you’re paying an average multiple for an above-average cash generator that benefits from an AI-driven refresh cycle.

You don’t need wild revenue growth if mix keeps tilting to flash and software, margins stay firm, and cash returns continue.

If macro or competition pinches growth while costs creep up, the multiple probably drifts lower until the next upgrade cycle.

How I’d Think About Position Size

This is core-tech, not moonshot. Treat it like a steady compounder with some AI optionality.

  • Starter: 2–3% position on routine pullbacks or under the 200-day trend.

  • Earn the add: Push toward 4–5% only if two quarters show (a) double-digit growth in all-flash and cloud services together, and (b) gross margin holding or improving with clean cash conversion.

  • Brake lights: If flash slows while cloud services stall, and margin drifts down, tighten and wait for the next guide.

What Could Go Right

  • AI turns pilot to production. A few marquee AI storage deals land, and peers cite NetApp as reference architecture.

  • Cloud attach accelerates. More customers adopt the “run NetApp inside the cloud” model, lifting recurring revenue and smoothing quarters.

  • Consumption wins. Storage-as-a-Service adoption climbs, which makes expansions easier and keeps customers sticky.

What Could Go Wrong

  • Clouds get grabby. Native storage from hyperscalers undercuts third-party offerings on price or bundling.

  • Deal slippage. Europe or public sector pushes orders right, turning an easy comp into a shrug.

  • Competitive pressure. A rival underprices a big fleet swap, forcing discounting and margin give-back.

The Bottom Line

If you want AI exposure without living and dying by model hype, the data plumbing trade is a sane lane.

NetApp is a proven operator that throws off cash, pays you a dividend, and stands to benefit as enterprises re-platform for AI.

It won’t double overnight, but it doesn’t need to. Let the mix shift and cash returns do the work, buy your shares on boring days, and size like a pro.

Action Recap

✅ Starter 2–3% on dips, let dividends and buybacks compound
✅ Add on proof: two quarters of rising flash + cloud services with stable-to-up margins and strong cash conversion
⚠️ Trim if flash slows and cloud stalls together, or if margins backslide on discounting
👀 Watch: AI customer references, cloud attach, gross margin trend, and free cash flow vs. capital returns

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider