Air Taxis, Side Quests, And A Paycheck While You Wait

Author

Noah Zelvis
November 16, 2025

You don’t need to be a pilot to fly this one.
Watch three levers that actually matter for a young aviation story, the real-world milestones, a clear path to paid routes, and enough cash runway to make the first two happen without drama. 

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What Just Happened

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) checked off a real milestone with the first test flight of its hybrid defense aircraft done alongside L3Harris, only three months after announcing the project. That concept to sky speed matters. 

It makes the defense use case look less like a slide and more like a schedule. On the commercial side, Joby is still grinding toward FAA certification for its all-electric eVTOL, riding policy tailwinds from the new federal pilot program that lets regulators learn faster from limited operations. 

The market, meanwhile, is doing what the market does, which is cheering the big headlines one day and nitpicking cash burn the next. Your edge is focusing on the pieces that actually turn into durable revenue.

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The Business In One Breath

Joby wants to move people over city traffic with quiet, battery-powered aircraft that take off and land vertically. The core prize is short urban hops that replace soul-sucking commutes and pricey heli rides. 

Around that core, Joby’s been smart about side quests that look like main quests in disguise: defense missions with L3Harris, partnerships in the Gulf to seed early routes, and a funnel via Blade and, later, Uber to train customers on the idea of air, not asphalt.

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Your Three-Point Checklist

1) Milestones That Matter
The L3Harris hybrid demonstrator getting off the ground is a we ship moment, not just a we plan moment. Government missions are budgeted in multi-year chunks, and the ability to point to a flying test article compresses sales cycles. 

On the commercial front, the north star is still FAA type certification for the eVTOL, and Joby keeps logging miles and pilot hours. If you see steady updates on testing, participation in the federal integration pilot program, and FAA milestones moving from talked about to checked, you’re getting exactly what you need: proof.

2) The Revenue Path That Pays For Itself
No one wants a science project. You want routes, riders, and receipts. Joby’s recent quarter put real dollars on the board from Blade and defense work, not life-changing, but useful leading indicators. 

Add in MOUs in Saudi and a letter of intent in Kazakhstan, and you’ve got a rough map of where early commercial demand can show up. The defense hybrid work broadens that map. The commercial thesis gets a big boost if we see clear dates for initial cities, the first paying pilots, or government demo flights that convert to multi-year orders.

3) Cash Runway That Buys Time
Development is expensive. The company ended Q3 with a near-ten-figure cash pile and subsequently raised more, which stretches the runway. It’s not infinite, but it’s long enough to fund certification, keep the defense program moving, and stand up early commercial ops without starving the team.

Your tell is how the quarterly cash burn that behaves, capex that stays predictable, and any sign of non-dilutive funding tied to defense or international partnerships.

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Why Bulls Still Cheer

  • Speed To Proof — Announcing a project and flying a demonstrator in a single quarter is rare air. It signals execution muscle.

  • Multiple On-Ramps To Revenue — Defense demos, Blade-fed demand, early Gulf routes, and later an Uber funnel give Joby more than one way to win.

  • Category Momentum — The broader eVTOL space has more policy tailwind than it did a year ago. Limited ops let regulators learn faster and de-risk scaled launch.

  • Brand And Partners — Working with L3Harris and Gulf regulators is exactly how you derisk complex, regulated aviation rollouts.

Why Bears Keep Their Helmets On

  • Certification Risk — Schedules slip. Every quarter of delay costs cash and invites another raise.

  • Unit Economics TBD — Ticket prices, battery cycles, maintenance schedules—these decide margins, and they’re not fully proved at scale.

  • Hype Vs. Habit — Interest is high, but commuting habits are stubborn. Demand has to show up in repeat riders, not just ribbon-cuttings.

  • Valuation Mood Swings — High-growth, pre-profit names can get repriced fast if macro tightens or timelines stretch.

What To Watch Next

  • FAA Milestones — Clear, date-stamped progress through the remaining certification stages.

  • Defense Demo Schedule — Concrete dates and locations for the next flights and any shift from demo to funded programs.

  • Early Routes — Saudi/UAE/Kazakhstan updates with route maps, infrastructure prep, and target launch windows.

  • Cash Cadence — Quarterly burn, capex pacing, and any non-dilutive funding tied to defense or sovereign programs.

  • Customer Funnel — Blade route adoption, on-time launches, and any expansion in commuter frequency that signals stickiness.

How I’d Size It

Treat this like a venture-flavored satellite in a broader portfolio, not your core position.

  • Starter in the 1–2% range on red days. You’re paying for options on certification, defense, and early international routes.

  • Earn The Add toward 3–4% only if you get two straight quarters with clean FAA progress, visible defense demo cadence, and cash burn in line with plan.

  • Brake Lights if certification timelines slip twice in a row or if cash burn accelerates without fresh, credible funding sources.

What Could Go Right

  • Defense Pulls Forward Revenue — A fast follow-on order for hybrid aircraft support turns demo into a real backlog.

  • Policy Tailwinds Do Their Job — Limited ops generate data, regulators get comfortable, and certification steps speed up instead of slow down.

  • Network Effects In The Sky — A couple of well-chosen commuter routes hit habit status, driving repeat riders and word-of-mouth adoption.

What Could Go Wrong

  • Timeline Fatigue — One delay too many erodes trust, pushes out breakeven, and forces dilution.

  • Cost Surprises — Infrastructure, batteries, or training costs come in higher than modeled, pinching route economics.

  • Competitive Leapfrogs — A rival nails certification first in a key city and locks in airport vertiport rights.

Valuation Without The Headache

This is an upside play on a new mode of urban transport with a defense kicker. You buy these for the slope of the next three years, not the next three weeks. The way you protect yourself is by using a small starting size, clear milestone gates for adding, and a willingness to sit out the hype spikes. 

If the company keeps turning announcements into flights, flights into routes, and routes into repeat riders, the model can grow into the tag. If not, the position stays small enough to be a lesson, not a problem.

The Bottom Line

This story is finally leaving the PowerPoint and landing on runways. A defense aircraft that already flew, a commercial platform marching through certification, and a cash pile designed to bridge the gap, those are the ingredients you actually want. 

Start small, let the team earn your adds with dated milestones and cash discipline, and give the thesis time to take off. The sky doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be clear enough for the next flight.

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider