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  • 10x Forward Earnings Buys You Federal AI Exposure the Hyperscaler Crowd Won't Sell You

10x Forward Earnings Buys You Federal AI Exposure the Hyperscaler Crowd Won't Sell You

A fresh federal fiscal year opens the award window Thursday for three AI beneficiaries.

September 29, 2026

Monday's session was messy. Oil pushed higher on Middle East supply worries, the 10-year yield jumped, and the S&P finished red. Under the surface, though, a handful of mid-cap tech names set up entries you can actually act on.

Here are the three news items you need to know today, the three movers worth putting on your watchlist, and one speculative play with real federal spending behind it.

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Cybersecurity

Visa Builds an Agentic Defense for a Billion Daily Payments

Visa (NYSE: V) has open-sourced part of its AI-powered cyber-defense system after advanced models exposed weaknesses in conventional security protections.

The technology is designed to detect, counter, and contain attacks that can adapt without continuous human direction.

Visa processes roughly one billion payments every day, representing approximately $15 trillion in annual transactions. Opening part of its defense system allows security researchers and other organizations to strengthen the technology against emerging attack methods.

Cyberattacks Move at Machine Speed

Autonomous agents can repeatedly test a system, learn from failed attempts, and change their tactics during an attack. Security teams relying mainly on human responses could struggle to react quickly enough against software operating continuously.

Visa believes agentic attacks will require equally autonomous defenses that can monitor activity and respond immediately. The company is already allowing certain AI agents to make payments, adding another reason to verify what each agent can access and authorize.

Quantum Computing Creates Another Threat

Visa is also preparing for quantum computers that could eventually break encryption methods protecting digital payments and online commerce.

That risk requires new security systems that can protect financial information against technologies still being developed.

AI agents could handle nearly $3.1 trillion in online transactions by 2030, according to industry estimates.

Visa is building a security layer meant to keep those automated payments moving without giving autonomous software unrestricted access to the financial network.

Enterprise Software

IBM Gives Indian Organizations Greater Control Over Enterprise AI

IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Yotta Data Services have made their Sovereign Agentic AI Platform generally available to organizations in India.

The platform allows businesses and government agencies to deploy, manage, and govern AI agents while keeping sensitive data and operations within the country.

IBM is combining its enterprise AI software with Yotta’s locally operated cloud infrastructure. The setup addresses growing demand from regulated industries that need AI capabilities without moving important information into foreign computing environments.

Watsonx Runs the Agent Layer

The platform uses IBM watsonx Orchestrate to create AI agents capable of completing multi-step assignments across business applications.

Organizations can connect those agents with existing systems and apply controls over the information, tools, and actions available to them.

Yotta’s Shakti Cloud supplies the underlying GPUs, networking, security, and computing capacity. Shakti Studio also supports open-source and proprietary models, giving organizations options for model development, fine-tuning, deployment, and inference.

Enterprise Workflows Move Into Production

IBM and Yotta are targeting practical workflows including document processing, human resources automation, and security operations. The platform can coordinate specialized agents across those assignments while maintaining centralized monitoring and governance.

The launch gives IBM a stronger position in the growing market for sovereign AI infrastructure. Its software now sits at the center of a complete environment connecting AI models, autonomous agents, cloud computing, security, and national data controls.

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Aerospace

Boeing’s 737 MAX Software Problem Delays Certification

Boeing (NYSE: BA) faces another delay to its 737 MAX 10 after regulators identified a problem with automated flight guidance. The Federal Aviation Administration will not complete certification until it reviews and properly addresses the software issue.

The MAX 10 is the largest aircraft in Boeing’s 737 family and an important competitor to the Airbus A321neo. Delayed approval prevents Boeing from beginning deliveries to airlines that have already placed substantial orders for the model.

A Specific Landing Scenario Triggers the Problem

The glitch can appear when pilots abort a landing, begin a go-around, and then change the flight path programmed into the aircraft’s computer.

Under those conditions, the vertical navigation function can disengage, leaving the crew with manual controls or a simpler automated pitch mode.

Boeing says pilots retain control of the aircraft and already train for situations involving reduced automation. Engineers are developing a permanent update while the FAA conducts a formal review of the software and its potential safety implications.

Airlines Wait for a Permanent Fix

United Airlines and Southwest Airlines have resisted accepting aircraft equipped with the affected software version. Boeing has also issued guidance reinforcing existing cockpit procedures while testing continues with regulators and airline customers.

The delay shows how deeply software is tied to modern aircraft certification.

A narrowly defined navigation problem can hold back an entire jet program until Boeing proves that its hardware, software, and cockpit procedures operate safely together.

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Recent Tech Movers

Leidos Holdings (NYSE: LDOS)
Federal AI Budget Tailwind Extends

Leidos trades about 40% below its 52-week high, yet the setup is boring but powerful: the Trump administration's defense and intelligence spending increases are landing on the exact contracts Leidos already holds.

The company runs mission-critical AI, cyber, and data-analytics work for the Pentagon, VA, and IRS, and the pipeline of recompete and new-award decisions coming into Q4 is stacked. It also just landed a new Army contract, so keep it on your radar.

What makes it work now

Federal fiscal year 2027 starts Thursday, October 1. That means award activity picks up sharply into the next two months.

If you want AI infrastructure exposure without paying elevated multiples for it, Leidos is one of the cheapest ways to get there, trading at roughly 10x forward earnings while most of the AI crowd is priced for perfection.

The risk

Federal contractors are hostage to continuing resolutions and shutdown risk. If Congress drags its feet on the budget, expect a wobble.

Roper Technologies (NASDAQ: ROP)
Setting Up Cleanly Before Q3 Print

Roper is a vertical software conglomerate with a track record most compounders would kill for. The Q3 print is due in late October, and expectations have already reset: the stock closed Monday at $354, about 32% below its 52-week high, at roughly 15x forward earnings. Watch it closely.

Where it fits your book

Roper's software portfolio, including Deltek, Vertafore, and PowerPlan, is exactly the kind of business Meta's Desai hire (see above) reminds you is scarce: enterprise-grade, sticky, and increasingly getting agentic AI layered on top. That is a catalyst most models haven't captured yet.

The risk

The multiple has already compressed, but that doesn't make it a floor. If the Q3 print disappoints on organic growth, you get a mid-single-digit drop before the buyers show up. Position sizing matters here.

Pure Storage / Everpure (NYSE: P)
Analyst Day Reset Lifts the Thesis

Pure Storage, which the company presented as Everpure at its 2026 Financial Analyst Meeting on September 23, laid out an expanded long-term outlook built around durable, accelerated growth in AI storage and data management workloads.

The stock reacted well, and as you head into fiscal Q3 earnings, the setup looks constructive.

Where the demand is coming from

Every AI workload needs high-performance storage, and the company's all-flash architecture is the standard the hyperscalers are increasingly locking in on. Management framed the business expansion around a bigger addressable market than the old Pure Storage story you knew implied.

The risk

This is a story that requires hyperscaler capex to keep growing at current run-rates. If you see any hyperscaler cut a data-center budget in the next round of earnings, expect this name to sell off first. Keep your position sized accordingly.

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Federal AI Sleeper

Science Applications International Corp (NASDAQ: SAIC)

The Pitch

SAIC is a $5.6 billion federal IT contractor that has been overshadowed by Leidos, Booz Allen, and CACI for years.

The Trump administration's AI directives, combined with the fresh federal fiscal year that kicks off Thursday, October 1, are about to force a wave of AI modernization awards, and SAIC has been aggressively repositioning its portfolio around exactly the work you want it chasing.

Why now

The company sold its non-core supply chain business in 2023 to concentrate on higher-margin mission IT and AI, and the market has been slow to give it credit.

Management has been reinvesting free cash flow into buybacks. Q3 earnings land in early December, which gives you enough runway to build a position ahead of the print and any award announcements between now and then.

Where it could break

SAIC's revenue is 98% federal government. If Congress can't pass appropriations and a shutdown drags past mid-October, this stock will trade poorly regardless of the AI story.

That is the real risk. Size your position with that in mind, and keep dry powder for a dip if the government funding fight gets ugly.

Everything Else

That's our coverage for today; thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any tech stocks you want me to check out.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Tech Stock Insider